An asteroid approaches Earth, in this imagined rendering. Most asteroids, like 877 Alinda, don’t come this close. – Gary Swangin

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Potential Earth Collision in 2032

🚀 Scientists have detected an asteroid, 2024 YR4, with a non-zero chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. While the odds are relatively small, it’s a significant discovery in astronomy.

The asteroid, estimated to be 40-90 meters in diameter, poses a localized threat but is unlikely to cause a mass extinction event. It’s big enough for significant damage but not global catastrophe! 🤔

Current Impact Probability

As of February 7, 2025, NASA reports a 2.3% chance of impact on December 22, 2032. This probability has risen since January 29, 2025, when NASA observed a slightly increased (but still small) chance of collision.

Don’t panic just yet! NASA emphasizes that a collision is still considered “unlikely”. 🤞

The Torino Scale

The asteroid is currently classified as a risk level 3 on the Torino Scale. This scale ranges from 0 (no impact) to 10 (confirmed impact, global devastation). Asteroid 2024 YR4 is not a sure thing.

過去の例として、アポフィスという小惑星が2004年にトニノスケールで4段階に上昇しましたが、その後、データが収集されたことで0に降格しました。
This highlights the dynamic nature of asteroid predictions. New observations may lower the impact probability over time.

Size and Potential Damage

The asteroid is estimated to be approximately 40 to 90 meters in diameter. While not large enough to cause a global catastrophe, an impact in a populated area could cause significant local damage, similar to creating a large crater.

NASA explains that an object of 50 meters could or might not create a crater but would cause local damage. An object of 140 meters could cause a crater 1-2 kilometers in diameter, potentially leading to mass casualties if located above a densely populated area.

Timeline and Location of Potential Impact

The potential impact is projected for December 22, 2032. The precise location on Earth remains unknown.

What’s Next?

Astronomers are continually monitoring 2024 YR4. Further observations will refine the understanding of the asteroid’s trajectory, reducing uncertainty and providing a clearer picture of its future path.

NASA’s Role in Planetary Defense

NASA and other international space agencies are actively engaged in developing planetary defense strategies, including methods to deflect potentially hazardous asteroids and space rocks.

Source: Providence Journal